Opinion: Congress is up for grabs. These New York races may decide it.

If you aren’t familiar with New York, you may assume that the state is solid blue. That isn’t necessarily the reality. Former President Donald Trump’s Long Island rally last month told me as much, where MAGA fervor was on full display.
While New York City and other metropolitan areas are safely Democrat, there are 10 Republicans representing different parts of the state in the U.S. House. In 2022, New York Republicans picked up three seats and helped give the GOP control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
This year’s election could be just as consequential.
There are seven competitive U.S. House races in New York, per The New York Times. Two of those races, both rematches from 2022, are considered toss-ups. There’s no question that the Empire State will go for Vice President Kamala Harris in November. But if the Republican incumbents in these districts can hold their seats, New York could very well be the reason the GOP holds its majority in the House.
The Republicans are trying to tie their Democratic opponents to indicted New York City Mayor Eric Adams and Gov. Kathy Hochul, who’s facing record low approval ratings. Democrats, meanwhile, are focusing on their opponents’ records on abortion access and public safety.
If Harris wins in November but Democrats fail to take the House, it’ll be impossible for her to pass legislation, like her economic plan or codifying the provisions of Roe v. Wade. If Trump wins and Republicans keep the House, it could pave the way for disaster. While the Democrats are starting to treat New York like a battleground state, it might not be enough to overcome voters’ fears about crime and immigration.
In the Long Island suburbs, House Republican Anthony D’Esposito is in a rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen for the 4th Congressional District. In 2022, D’Esposito beat Gillen with fewer than 10,000 votes.
D’Esposito is a former NYPD officer running as tough on crime and immigration. In ads, he touts his police background and endorsements from law enforcement groups in Nassau County. His reelection campaign website has an entire section devoted to “women’s rights,” where he clarifies that he will vote against a national abortion ban. He came under fire recently for putting his romantic partner and his fiancée’s daughter on payroll, according to The Times.
Gillen is a former Hempstead town supervisor who highlights her record of cutting taxes while in the role. In one television ad, she notes that she wants to secure the border and “fund the police.” She has been endorsed by former Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Kathleen Rice.
Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro faces off against Democrat Josh Riley for the second time in the 19th Congressional District in Upstate New York. In 2022, Molinaro beat Riley by just over 6,000 votes.
Molinaro is an establishment Republican who got his start in New York politics when he was elected mayor of Tivoli at 19 years old. Despite being known for his willingness to work across the aisle, Molinaro recently began pushing the same anti-immigrant stories we’ve heard from Trump. In a new television ad, he suggests that Riley supports an open border and stokes fear about violent crime in New York.
Riley is a lawyer who previously served as general counsel to Sen. Al Franken on the on the Senate Judiciary Committee. In television ads, he’s gone after Molinaro’s record on abortion and highlighted his own commitment to cutting taxes for the middle class.
In the Hudson Valley, an incredibly close race could be affected by a third-party candidate who isn’t campaigning. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is once again running against Mondaire Jones in the 17th Congressional District. In 2022, Lawler won his seat by just over 2,000 votes.
Lawler is campaigning on his bipartisan successes in Congress. Like D’Esposito, he is running on a “commonsense” abortion position that opposes a national ban and protects in vitro fertilization. In television ads, he has tried to connect Jones to progressive congressional Democrats known as “The Squad.”
Recently, photos of Lawler donning blackface as Michael Jackson in college were obtained by The Times. In a statement, Lawler said the costume was “truly the sincerest form of flattery, a genuine homage to my musical hero.”
Jones, the Democratic challenger, represented the district from 2021 till the end of 2022. In an ad focused on public safety, Jones’ campaign pointed out that Lawler previously voted to cut law enforcement spending by $1 billion.
Running against the two mainstream party candidates is Anthony Frascone, a candidate on the Working Families Party ticket. Frascone, a former Republican, isn’t actually campaigning. Because of this, the Working Families Party, a progressive left third party, is actively campaigning against Frascone and has spent $25,000 urging their voters to support Jones.
Emerson College predicts Lawler winning with 45% of the vote, Jones receiving 44%. Frascone is pulling 3% of the vote – meaning his appearance on the ballot could very well affect the outcome of the race.
On Friday, The Times shifted this race from toss-up to lean Republican.
A few things stand out to me about New York’s competitive House races. When I watch the news, the television ads I see from these candidates mostly center around public safety, regardless of party. It’s indicative of how much fear is controlling this election – even though violent crime is down, per the FBI.
It can be easy to feel like your vote doesn’t matter in a state that is solidly Democrat or Republican. If anything, the rise of Republicans that New York saw in 2022 should be a sign that every state is important in the election.
While Harris is certain to win the state, she can’t accomplish parts of her platform without a Democratic majority in the House.
Early voting in New York starts Saturday. Check your registration, make a plan to vote and remember how even down ballot races can affect the nation’s future.
Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Sara Pequeño on X, formerly Twitter: @sara__pequeno